How the actuarial profession and media betrayed Albertans
In 2022, I sent details of the CPP’s surplus and potential to all provincial premiers and their finance ministers. Only Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta has taken concrete action. She was not agreeing with the idea that concealing the CPP’s $500 billion surplus would be best, in the long run, for Canadians and Canada.
Bev McLachlan is Canada’s longest-serving Chief Justice in Canadian history. She is from Alberta but now lives in Ottawa. Because my ex-wife is a friend of hers, I was able to personally notify her that Alberta deserves roughly $140 billion from our CPP fund. She learned that $70 billion is surplus intended to make the province thrive. She was asked to visit this website for more information. She may have been influential in shaming the enablers of the injustice described below into considering action.
How much of the $864 billion fund did Alberta deserve? All members of the CPP have a personal fund within the total fund. It is based on how much we have contributed, when we contributed it, and our age. Each personal fund value adds to the total fund value. A computer could easily add the personal fund value of all Albertans and arrive at a total for all Albertans. The fair share of a pension fund that each province deserves roughly co-relates with that province’s population.
Excluding Quebec with their QPP, Alberta’s population is 16% of Canada’s population, giving Albertans roughly a $140 billion fair share of the fund, of which roughly $70 billion is surplus. When Alberta receives it, Premier Smith’s Alberta Pension Plan (APP) website (now defunct) states she will:
Fully match all future CPP pension obligations,
Give Alberta seniors as much as $10,000 each,
Reduce contributions by $1,425 per worker (and matching employer) annually,
Invest some of the remaining funds in Alberta’s economy.
(In the summer of 2026, the controversial website, fueling separation, was removed. As Prime Minister Carney gave Alberta numerous concessions and a pipeline promise, is it possible he insisted on the removal of this website as a condition for these benefits? The Wayback Machine can still access the site, giving us the two snapshots below.)
The proposed $8 billion given to seniors, coupled with the $20 billion contribution reduction for employees and employers, would increase Alberta’s GDP, productivity, business profits and employment. And it would reduce income inequality and poverty in Alberta. Finally, Alberta’s deficit would decrease, thanks to increased HST, increased income tax and a reduction in the need for social assistance. Any politician who ignores this opportunity to bring these billions of dollars in deserved benefits to his/her citizens should be ashamed.
These benefits could all reach Albertans with their 16% fair share of the fund, not the ridiculous 53% share ($422 billion) that actuaries claimed Alberta deserves. (See below.)
The following graph shows how Alberta’s $140 billion (in 2026) fair share of our $864 CPP fund would be divided.
If Alberta separates, they will be barred from investing with CPP Investments. However, if Alberta stays within Canada, but demands their fair share of the fund for their APP, they could possibly continue to invest with CPP Investments. Pension funds often invest for more than one group of people. My TMU pension fund is invested with OMERS, which invests and oversees the pension funds of 1,000 organizations across Canada. If the APP were allowed to invest with CPP Investments, in addition to the above benefits based on a future 6% return, Albertans could expect a $4 billion surplus, and growing, added to their share of the fund every year.
Even though Albertans’ contributions might no longer be invested with the likely 10% return of CPP Investments, Premier Smith persisted. She knows that giving Albertans the benefits from a $70 billion surplus today is better than that surplus remaining unused in Ottawa so that Canada’s financial industry, centred in Ontario, can continue to corner 47% of all corporate profits.
Premier Smith’s actions means the cover-up of the CPP’s $500 billion surplus was unraveling. If Albertans received these benefits, Canadians in other provinces would wonder why they were not receiving the same benefits. They would likely investigate and learn about the CPP’s $500 billion surplus, CPP Investments likely ongoing 10% return, the benefits of voluntary contributions to CPP Investments, and the likelihood of a $100,000 CPP pension in 2026 dollars for young Canadians.
Based on overwhelming pressure from voters, politicians would have no choice but to legislate CPP reform, thereby giving these benefits to 99% of Canadians. Then the financial industry would lose billions in profit and the actuarial profession would see their future employment prospects plummet, as explained here.
Desperate measures by the perpetrators of the cover-up were necessary. In 2020, then Premier Jason Kenney commissioned LifeWorks, Canada’s largest actuarial firm, to estimate Alberta’s fair share of our CPP fund. Premier Smith released the report in 2023. Using an absurd interpretation of the Canada Pension Plan Act, Lifeworks reported that Alberta deserves a ridiculous 53% of the fund. Using the same interpretation, all of Canada, except Quebec, would deserve 353% of the fund. Suspiciously, Canada’s best mathematicians did not realize what grade three students know - if you divide something into shares, all shares must add to 100%.
The reputation of actuarial science, and Lifeworks in particular, were tarnished. Or were they? The perpetrators of this cover-up told the mainstream media, which they control, to attribute this 53% estimate to Premier Smith, portraying her as unhinged, uncooperative and un-Canadian, as shown below.
In a few weeks, Albertans will vote on holding a future referendum on separation. Prime Minister Carney wants no part of being Prime Minister when a province separates. He has recently given Alberta numerous considerable economic concessions that no other province has received. The new Pacific Pipeline is the largest.
Is it a coincidence that just after these concessions were granted, the Alberta Pension Plan website was taken down?
Consider the federal Liberal-NDP Alliance that gave the NDP part of the credit for Pharmacare and dental care. Did the NDP, as any left-wing party should, threaten to add a CPP surplus distribution to their platform? Also, did Premier Smith’s offer of huge benefits to Albertans when she received Alberta’s share of the surplus result in Prime Minister Carney giving Albertans huge concessions?
The concessions all relate to restrictions on oil production. Which are the 43% of Albertans within $200 of insolvency interested in - more oil production or a $10,000 CPP or APP surplus payment? Time will tell.